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Oil prices inched higher on Monday, stabilizing after last week’s sharp losses as traders balanced hopes of progress on a Russia-Ukraine peace framework against the impact of newly implemented U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors.
By 07:50 ET (12:50 GMT), Brent January futures rose 0.2% to $62.08, while WTI crude climbed 0.7% to $58.20. Both benchmarks fell nearly 3% last week.
Peace-deal speculation keeps upside limited
The U.S. and Ukraine agreed on an “updated and refined” framework aimed at advancing negotiations with Russia, after revisions to a previous 28-point plan criticized as too lenient on Moscow.
A breakthrough—if it ever materializes—could lead to the lifting of sanctions and potentially restore more Russian crude to global markets, raising risks of oversupply.
ING noted that a deal remains unlikely in the near term, pointing to major sticking points such as territorial concessions, limits on Ukraine’s military, and Kyiv’s demand for explicit security guarantees.
New U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil take effect
Market focus also remained on Washington’s latest restrictions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, effective since Nov. 21.
The measures block key export channels and restrict global banks and buyers from dealing with the two firms.
While peace-deal hopes weigh on prices, these sanctions could tighten supply and offer some support.
ING said developments on both fronts are crucial:
- A peace deal increases the likelihood of sanctions being eased.
- But strict enforcement of current sanctions could limit Russian flows.
BofA sees Brent averaging $60/bbl in 2026
Bank of America expects global oil demand to rise by roughly 1 million bpd in 2026, but foresees a 2 million bpd surplus due to non-OPEC+ growth and OPEC+ market-share strategies.
As a result, the bank projects:
- Brent at $60
- WTI at $57
BofA added that geopolitics remain a major wild card, noting that output in Iran, Venezuela, and Russia could deviate sharply from expectations.
The bank also said Brent could test $50 in a severe downside scenario driven by weak demand, oversupply, or geopolitical de-escalation.
