Oil slides over 2% as U.S. push for Russia-Ukraine talks and rate angst sap risk appetite

Oil fell for a third straight session on Friday, with traders bracing for looser supply risks and tighter financial conditions.

• Brent down 2.2% to $61.98 by 10:10 GMT
• WTI down 2.5% to $57.52
  Both benchmarks are on track for ~4% weekly losses, erasing last week’s gains.

What’s weighing on crude

• Diplomatic overhang: Washington’s renewed push for a Russia-Ukraine peace framework tempered fears of prolonged supply disruption, even as fresh U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil take effect Friday. Kyiv signaled willingness to engage, though analysts warned any accord remains far from certain.
• Sanctions skepticism: Markets increasingly doubt the latest restrictions will meaningfully curtail Russian exports in the near term, with Lukoil holding until Dec. 13 to divest international assets.
• Stronger dollar, softer cuts odds: The U.S. dollar is set for its best week in over a month as traders scale back expectations for a December Fed rate cut (CME FedWatch ~35% vs ~90% a month ago), tightening financial conditions for commodities.

Market take

The peace-talks headline risk and sanctions ambiguity are skewing the balance toward ample 2026 supply, while a firmer dollar tightens liquidity for dollar-priced assets. Near-term, dips may attract bargain-hunting into support zones, but absent a clear demand catalyst—or a genuine, lasting hit to Russian exports—rallies look vulnerable.