Gold extended losses in Asian trading, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar as traders pared back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and rotated away from non-yielding assets.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,019.19/oz, while December futures declined 1.4% to $4,018.89/oz by 00:38 ET (05:38 GMT).

Rate path uncertainty keeps bullion on the back foot

Positioning shifted after markets rapidly priced out the likelihood of a December easing, leaving the Fed “data-dependent” yet partially data-blind after a prolonged government shutdown disrupted key releases. The September nonfarm payrolls report—now due Thursday—will be the last major labor read before the Dec. 10–11 policy meeting.

Futures pricing via CME FedWatch shows roughly a 42.4% probability of a 25 bp cut versus 57.6% odds of a hold. Higher-for-longer U.S. rates continue to erode the appeal of bullion relative to Treasuries. Recent remarks from Fed officials offered mixed guidance, reinforcing caution.

Stronger dollar weighs on the metals complex

The greenback’s rebound added to headwinds for dollar-priced commodities. Spot platinum slipped 0.7% to $1,526.77/oz, while spot silver fell 0.7% to $49.8585/oz. In base metals, LME three-month copper eased 0.8% to $10,695.90/ton, retracing part of last week’s advance.

Dollar strength stemmed from reduced near-term cut expectations and concern over stretched fiscal dynamics in developed markets—particularly Japan—where a rise in long-dated JGB yields pressured the yen and funneled flows into the dollar.

What to watch

• Thursday’s NFP (September): A downside surprise could revive cut bets and buoy gold; resilience would likely cap rallies.
• Fed communications into December: Any consensus shift on the pace or timing of easing.
• Key technicals: Initial support $3,980–4,000; resistance $4,050–4,100.