Bitcoin trimmed part of its slide on Monday but stayed under pressure, with fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month and nerves ahead of long-delayed U.S. data keeping buyers cautious.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency last traded 0.7% lower at $95,101, after touching $93,043 in the past 24 hours—its weakest level since late April. Bitcoin fell nearly 7% last week, chalking up a third straight weekly decline.

Policy repricing saps momentum

Derivatives markets now assign ~40% odds to a 25 bp cut at the Fed’s Dec. 10–11 meeting—down sharply from about 90% earlier this month—as officials signal reluctance to ease without clearer disinflation and softer labor data. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she would be “hesitant to ease policy further” absent clearer deterioration.

The hawkish tilt has undercut a key pillar of this year’s crypto bull case. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have swung to accelerating outflows as investors unwind trades predicated on looser policy, further dampening price traction.

Data fog begins to lift

Sentiment also remains fragile after the U.S. government shutdown created a weeks-long “data blackout.” The September nonfarm payrolls report—delayed by the closure—is now slated for Thursday, and will help shape views on the Fed’s December decision.

Japan eyes reclassification; tax overhaul debated

In policy news, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is reportedly preparing to reclassify cryptocurrencies as financial products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, according to Asahi. Roughly 105 cryptoassets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, would fall under insider-trading prohibitions. The FSA is also said to back cutting the tax on crypto gains to a flat 20%—aligned with equities—down from a top marginal burden that can exceed 55%. Market participants view the twin moves as a step toward mainstreaming while tightening conduct standards.

Market breadth: altcoins mixed

Altcoins were mixed, with most trimming early declines. Ether briefly jumped more than 4% intraday before paring back to trade near $3,188 (-0.3%). XRP was flat around $2.226. Solana slipped 0.5%, while Cardano and Polygon eased ~1.8% apiece. Among memecoins, Dogecoin fell 0.8%, and $TRUMP edged 0.7% lower.

What to watch next

• U.S. macro: Thursday’s delayed NFP print and upcoming PMI releases to recalibrate December Fed odds.
• Flows: Whether spot BTC ETF outflows stabilize after last week’s acceleration.
• Policy: Details from Japan’s FSA on classification and taxation, and any implementation timeline.

With policy easing hopes tempered and event risk rising, near-term BTC price action remains vulnerable to macro surprises and flow dynamics, even as oversold conditions invite tactical dip-buying.