Gold fell in Asian trading Monday, extending last week’s pullback as traders further priced out the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month and the U.S. dollar nudged higher.

• Spot gold: $4,053.84/oz (-0.6%) by 00:33 ET
• Dec futures: $4,055.91/oz (-0.9%)

Policy repricing pressures bullion

A swift reset in rate expectations has weighed on non-yielding assets. CME FedWatch now implies ~39.8% odds of a 25 bp cut at the Dec. 10–11 meeting (from 61.9% a week ago), with hold probabilities rising to ~60.2%. The shift reflects lingering uncertainty after the record U.S. government shutdown, which may delay—or even cancel—October readings for inflation and employment, leaving policymakers with less visibility. Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks offered little commitment toward easing in December, while “sticky” inflation signals have reinforced the high-for-longer narrative.

Dollar steadies ahead of key catalysts

The Dollar Index edged 0.1% higher, eroding gold’s appeal for non-U.S. buyers. Attention turns to a busy U.S. calendar:

• Fed minutes (Oct meeting) on Wednesday for color around the reaction function;
• PMIs (Nov) through the week;
• Nonfarm payrolls (Sep) scheduled Thursday—one of several releases distorted by the shutdown timetable.

Metals board

• Silver (spot): $50.5795/oz, flat after last week’s sharp retreat from near-record highs.
• Platinum (spot): $1,548/oz, +0.1%, still nursing prior-session losses.

What to watch

A durable break below $4,050 could expose the $3,990–$4,000 zone where dip-buyers have re-emerged in recent sessions. Conversely, a softer dollar and any downside surprises in labor or inflation proxies would help gold rebuild momentum toward $4,120–$4,160 resistance. For now, the balance of risks is tethered to the evolving path of Fed expectations and the pace at which the data backlog clears.