Oil prices edged higher Monday, supported by signs the U.S. government shutdown could soon end—potentially improving demand in the world’s largest crude consumer—while persistent supply concerns capped the move.

By 07:51 GMT, Brent was up $0.39 (+0.61%) at $64.02/bbl and WTI gained $0.43 (+0.72%) to $60.18/bbl. The bid followed a U.S. Senate procedural step toward reopening the federal government after 40 days, a development that lifted global risk sentiment. IG’s Tony Sycamore said a resolution should restore pay to ~800,000 federal workers, bolster confidence and spending, and could “rebound WTI toward $62.”

Demand hopes vs. near-term drags

• Travel disruption: U.S. airlines canceled 2,800+ flights and delayed 10,200+ on Sunday—the worst day since the shutdown began—posing a temporary headwind to jet fuel demand.
• Macro tone: A shutdown resolution would also restart the flow of official economic data, aiding visibility on growth and fuel consumption.

Supply picture still heavy

• U.S. inventories: Crude stocks rose more than expected, reinforcing a near-term oversupply narrative.
• Floating storage in Asia: Volumes have doubled in recent weeks as tighter Western sanctions curbed flows to China and India, and quota constraints damped intake by independent Chinese refiners.
• Trade shifts: Indian refiners increased purchases from the Middle East and the Americas to replace sanctioned Russian barrels.
• Russia risks: Lukoil faces mounting disruptions ahead of a Nov. 21 U.S. deadline for companies to cease business ties, after a proposed asset sale to Gunvor fell through.

OPEC+ and price context

Both benchmarks fell about 2% last week, logging a second straight weekly loss. OPEC+ will slightly increase output in December but pause further hikes in Q1, signaling caution on tipping the market into glut.

Outlook

The shutdown path—and its impact on consumer confidence and data flow—will shape near-term demand sentiment. Still, with rising U.S. inventories, elevated floating storage, and incremental OPEC+ supply, rallies are likely to encounter resistance unless evidence of firmer end-demand emerges or Russian supply disruptions intensify.