The pair staged an intraday bounce after tagging the 1.1480 bearish target, but price action still looks like a resistance retest rather than a trend change.
Technical outlook
- SMAs/structure: Price remains below the simple moving averages and under a descending structure—capping upside attempts.
- RSI: Pushed into overbought on the rebound, arguing for limited follow-through.
Base case (bearish while below 1.1560/1.1580)
- Sustained trade beneath 1.1560/1.1580 keeps the downside favored.
- A decisive break/4H close below 1.1500 would open 1.1465, then 1.1435.
Invalidation / upside toggle
- Reclaiming and holding above 1.1560/1.1580 would neutralize immediate downside risk and allow a limited corrective push toward 1.1625.
Risk note
Volatility remains elevated amid trade/geopolitical headlines. Use prudent sizing and firm stops; reassess quickly if these key levels give way.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading CFDs involves risks, and therefore the scenarios outlined above are not a recommendation to sell or buy but rather an explanatory reading of price movement on the chart.
| S1: 1.1500 | R1: 1.1560 |
| S2: 1.1465 | R2: 1.1590 |
| S3: 1.1435 | R3: 1.1625 |
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