Market snapshot

• Spot: $3,957.42, +0.2% intraday
• COMEX Futures: $3,977.76, −0.1%
• Price sits near the lowest since early October after a two-day slide.

Drivers

1) Fed decision in focus

• A 25 bps rate cut is widely expected later today.
• The path matters more than the print: any hint from Chair Powell that subsequent cuts may be slower or conditional on inflation could buoy real yields/the dollar and cap gold.

2) Trade/geopolitics easing

• Signs of a U.S.–China framework on tariffs/rare-earths and remarks about reducing certain fentanyl-linked tariffs have tempered safe-haven bids.
• Risk-on tonality after high-level Asia visits keeps gold on the defensive.

3) Positioning into the event

• Pre-FOMC squaring is muting moves across metals; gold’s beta to real-yield shifts stays elevated.

Cross-market color (today)

• Silver +0.3% to $47.45/oz; Platinum −0.6% to $1,575.80/oz.
• Copper steady-firmer (LME $11,053/t; COMEX $5.18/lb) as growth sentiment improves.

Technical view (tactical, H4)

• Trend tone: Bearish-to-neutral near 3-week lows.
• Resistance: $3,985 → $4,000 → $4,022 (supply band).
• Support: $3,963 (recent low); a break exposes $3,922 next.
• Momentum: RSI recovering from oversold, but below midline—bounces likely corrective unless >$4,000 holds.

Trading scenarios (not advice)

• Base case: If the Fed guides cautiously on further easing and real yields firm, rallies into $3,985–4,022 may fade; risk re-tests of $3,963/$3,922.
• Upside risk: Dovish surprise (softer guidance on inflation/pace of cuts) or a weaker dollar could lift gold above $4,000, opening $4,022 and reducing downside momentum.

What to watch

• FOMC statement & presser: language on inflation persistence, growth risks, and any nods to QT adjustments.
• Real yields & DXY moves in the first 1–3 hours post-decision.
• Follow-through on trade headlines; any walk-backs could quickly restore safe-haven demand.