European equities traded cautiously on Tuesday as investors sifted through a heavy batch of corporate results and braced for a pivotal Federal Reserve decision.
Market snapshot (08:05 GMT):
- Germany’s DAX: −0.3%
- France’s CAC 40: −0.2%
- UK’s FTSE 100: +0.2%
Fed in Focus
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting later today, with markets pricing a 96% probability of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday, after U.S. headline inflation eased to 3.0% y/y in September. Beyond the move itself, investors will parse Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance for hints on an additional cut at the December meeting amid signs of labor-market softening.
Central-Bank Heavy Week
The Fed isn’t alone on stage. Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank also set policy this week. The ECB is widely expected to hold rates steady, with inflation hovering near its 2% medium-term goal and growth appearing broadly stable.
Macro Pulse: Germany Sentiment Weakens
Forward-looking indicators underscore Europe’s fragile demand backdrop. Germany’s GfK consumer sentiment slid to −24.1 for November from a revised −22.5 in October, pointing to further pressure on discretionary spending into year-end.
Trade & Geopolitics: Deal Hopes Support Risk Tone
Global trade remains in the spotlight. U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to meet China’s President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday, with both sides expected to finalize elements of a Kuala Lumpur draft framework aimed at averting new tariffs. Earlier, Trump met Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo, discussing defense ties, trade, and the previously announced $550 billion U.S. investment package targeting joint infrastructure, clean energy, and technology projects.
The Takeaway
With earnings still rolling in and four major central banks in play, European indices are likely to stay range-bound until the Fed’s policy signal and Powell’s tone clarify the near-term path for global rates. A dovish lean that keeps December in play could extend support to duration-sensitive sectors and high-beta names; a more cautious stance risks a brief risk-off wobble—especially given soft German sentiment readings.
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