Gold Prices Slip Below $4,110 as Investors Weigh Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy Path

Gold prices edged lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline as investors reassessed expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Spot gold traded at $4,100.41 per ounce, down 0.62% or $25.67 as of 23:19 GMT+3, according to TradingView data. The metal fell from a previous close of $4,126.07, after fluctuating between $4,043.52 and $4,144.53 during the session.

Despite the pullback, gold remains up more than 56% year-to-date, reflecting its resilience amid ongoing global uncertainty and shifting monetary expectations. However, this week’s retreat — over 5% in five days — underscores how sensitive the market remains to changes in inflation readings and the Fed’s next move.

The recent Consumer Price Index report showed inflation cooling slightly in September, but not enough to fully convince policymakers that price pressures are subdued. That has led traders to scale back aggressive bets on immediate rate cuts, even as broader sentiment remains tilted toward eventual easing.

Gold’s recent slide also mirrors a mild rebound in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, both of which tend to weigh on non-yielding assets. Still, analysts note that the $4,000–$4,050 zone remains a critical psychological and technical support level — one that could attract dip buyers if the market stabilizes.

Over the past month, gold has gained nearly 9%, and over the last six months it has surged 22%, driven largely by geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. Traders continue to monitor developments surrounding U.S.–China trade relations, renewed sanctions on Russian energy firms, and expectations for a possible meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents later this quarter.

While intraday sentiment remains cautious, the long-term trend still favors the upside, with technical strategists eyeing potential rebounds toward $4,160–$4,200 if the $4,000 level holds.

For now, gold’s trajectory reflects a market caught between two opposing forces — a still-firm inflation outlook and a growing belief that central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycles. As investors balance those crosscurrents, volatility in the precious metal is likely to remain elevated heading into the Fed’s next policy decision.