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U.S. stock futures edged higher on Wednesday, with investors assessing the recent surge in gold prices and parsing the likely trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rate policy amid an ongoing federal government shutdown that has paused key economic data releases.
At 05:56 ET (09:56 GMT), S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures advanced 0.2%, signaling a modest rebound after Wall Street’s pullback on Tuesday.
Wall Street Rebounds Modestly After Tech-Led Decline
The S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7% on Tuesday, retreating from record highs. Losses were driven largely by weakness in cloud software stocks, particularly Oracle, after a report from The Information suggested its AI infrastructure margins were thinner than expected.
However, optimism surrounding the artificial intelligence sector remained intact. AMD extended gains for a second day following its multi-year AI chip deal with OpenAI, while IBM rose after announcing a partnership with Anthropic, and Dell Technologies climbed on improved long-term guidance tied to AI server demand.
Data Vacuum Shifts Focus to Alternative Indicators
The federal shutdown has disrupted the release of several key reports, including the nonfarm payrolls and inflation readings, leaving traders to rely on private-sector indicators. A New York Fed survey this week showed rising inflation expectations and weaker business sentiment, dampening confidence in the economic outlook.
Internationally, central banks delivered mixed surprises: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand issued a dovish decision, while Thailand’s central bank struck a more hawkish tone. In Europe, France’s political uncertainty continued, though domestic equities stabilized as the likelihood of snap elections diminished.
Meanwhile, Germany’s industrial production for August missed expectations, underscoring persistent fragility in the eurozone’s largest economy.
Gold Tops $4,000 as Safe-Haven Demand Surges
Gold prices surged past the $4,000-per-ounce threshold for the first time on Wednesday, supported by rising demand from both private investors and central banks amid heightened global uncertainty.
The metal has rallied over 50% year-to-date, marking its best performance since 1979, driven by a mix of rate-cut expectations, fiscal risks, and currency weakness. Analysts at ING noted strong ETF inflows and continued purchases by the People’s Bank of China, which extended its gold buying streak for an 11th consecutive month in September.
The Japanese yen—traditionally another safe-haven—remained under pressure after the election of Sanae Takaichi, who is expected to push for looser fiscal policies and oppose further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Fed Minutes and Policy Outlook in Focus
Traders now turn to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, set for release later Wednesday, for insights into the Fed’s September policy decision to cut rates by 25 basis points—its first easing move since December.
Officials signaled the possibility of two additional cuts before year-end, with the next meeting scheduled for October 28–29. The focus remains on the Fed’s balancing act between supporting a slowing labor market and curbing sticky inflation.
Given the lack of fresh economic data, analysts at Vital Knowledge said upcoming Fed speeches are unlikely to materially alter market expectations.
Notable Movers: Nvidia, Penguin Solutions
In premarket trade, Nvidia edged higher after a Bloomberg report said Elon Musk’s xAI is using the chipmaker’s hardware in its push to raise $20 billion in funding.
Conversely, Penguin Solutions sank after posting fourth-quarter sales below estimates, with weaker hardware demand weighing on results.
Outlook
With the government shutdown extending into its second week, investors are navigating a landscape defined by political uncertainty, strong gold inflows, and AI-driven corporate momentum.
Analysts expect volatility to remain elevated, with markets highly sensitive to Fed communication and any signs of fiscal resolution in Washington.
