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Oil prices edged higher in early Wednesday trading as investors digested the OPEC+ decision to maintain a modest production increase for November, easing some fears of an oversupply-driven selloff.
Brent crude rose 0.7% to $65.93 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 0.8% to $62.24 by 04:00 GMT. Both benchmarks had traded largely flat on Tuesday after a volatile week marked by conflicting supply signals.
OPEC+ Keeps Tight Grip on Output
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies opted to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd)—the smallest increase among several options under discussion during last weekend’s meeting. The restrained approach helped stabilize sentiment following weeks of price declines on concerns about weakening global demand and rising inventories.
Analysts at ANZ Bank said investors were likely to discount the production hike until physical market conditions showed clear signs of softening:
“Until inventories start to rise meaningfully, traders are likely to stay cautious but avoid aggressive short positions.”
Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research, added that traders holding long positions were finding support from ongoing efforts to restrict Russian crude exports, even as Russian shipments remain near 16-month highs.
Inventory Data in Focus
Markets now await official U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) due later Wednesday. Preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed U.S. crude stocks rose by 2.78 million barrels in the week ending October 3, exceeding expectations. Gasoline and distillate inventories, however, fell over the same period.
Meanwhile, the EIA projected that U.S. crude production will reach a new record high this year, surpassing earlier estimates as shale output continues to expand despite softening prices.
Market Outlook
The market remains in what LSEG described as “price limbo,” with traders torn between expectations of a near-term supply surplus and optimism that OPEC+ discipline could support prices heading into the winter season.
With geopolitical risks and the U.S. government shutdown also clouding the macroeconomic outlook, analysts expect oil to remain rangebound in the short term—fluctuating between $60 and $66 per barrel until clearer signals on demand and stock trends emerge.
