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Oil prices held near flat in Asian trading on Tuesday, stabilizing after a sharp rebound in the previous session as investors assessed the impact of a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ production increase scheduled for next month.
As of 21:44 ET (01:44 GMT), Brent crude futures for September delivery rose 0.2% to $65.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also edged up 0.2% to $61.80 per barrel.
Both benchmarks gained over 1% on Monday, recovering from last week’s heavy losses after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to raise supply at a slower pace than anticipated, easing fears of a sudden market oversupply.
OPEC+ Keeps Tight Grip on Production
The OPEC+ coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced plans to increase output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, maintaining its cautious approach from October. The decision signaled that the group remains focused on price stability over market share gains, amid forecasts of a potential supply surplus in late 2025 and 2026.
Analysts at ING noted that the restrained move reflects growing caution over a projected global oil glut, citing subdued demand growth from China and Europe, and rising non-OPEC production, particularly from the United States and Brazil.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last month that global production could exceed demand by more than 2 million bpd next year, creating a record supply surplus by 2026 if output increases continue.
Geopolitical Risks Offer Some Support
Oil prices also found some support from renewed geopolitical tensions after Ukraine intensified drone strikes on Russian energy facilities, including the Kirishi and Ryazan refineries, disrupting processing capacity and tightening export availability.
Traders remain cautious, however, as the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, continues to cloud the macroeconomic outlook. The closure has delayed key U.S. economic data releases — including employment and inflation reports — that typically guide expectations for Federal Reserve policy decisions.
With the data blackout likely to persist, markets face a period of uncertainty, balancing the risk of weaker global demand against ongoing geopolitical supply disruptions.
Analysts say that unless OPEC+ signals further restraint or demand indicators improve, oil prices may remain rangebound in the short term as investors await clearer economic direction from the U.S. and China.
