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Dollar Edges Higher as Traders Brace for Fed Decision

Dollar Holds Firm Ahead of Fed Meeting

The U.S. dollar ticked higher on Monday, with investors closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, which is set to shape currency markets as the final quarter of 2025 approaches.

At 08:10 GMT, the Dollar Index—tracking the greenback against six major peers—was up 0.1% at 97.175, although it remains more than 10% lower year-to-date.

Markets are pricing in a 96.4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting, with only a slim 3.6% chance of a larger 50 bps reduction. The decision follows data pointing to a weakening U.S. labor market and moderate August inflation, which reinforced expectations of policy easing.

Beyond the Fed, traders are also awaiting U.S. retail sales data on Tuesday, as well as jobless claims and July TIC flows on Thursday, for further direction.

Euro Struggles Amid French Political Uncertainty

The euro slipped slightly, with EUR/USD at 1.1732, as the single currency failed to capitalize on dollar weakness due to ongoing French political and fiscal uncertainty.

Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating to A+ late Friday, adding to concerns over the government’s ability to deliver fiscal reforms. Markets are now watching how quickly new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu can push through consolidation efforts amid a fragmented National Assembly.

Sterling Supported Ahead of BoE Meeting

The British pound edged higher, with GBP/USD rising 0.2% to 1.3582, ahead of the Bank of England’s policy decision on Thursday.

The BoE has already cut rates five times in the past year but is widely expected to hold steady, with inflation still at 3.8% in July, the highest in the G7 and nearly double the U.K.’s 2% target.

Fresh ONS data last week showed the U.K. economy stagnated in July, cooling momentum after a stronger first half of the year.

Yuan Weakens as China Data Disappoints

In Asia, the Chinese yuan weakened slightly, with USD/CNY at 7.1233, after a batch of soft economic readings. Industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment all missed expectations, while the jobless rate rose unexpectedly to 5.3% in August.

The numbers reinforced concerns over entrenched disinflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy.

Commodity Currencies Mixed

The Australian dollar extended last week’s gains, with AUD/USD up 0.2% to 0.6662, benefiting from firmer commodity prices.

Meanwhile, other majors traded cautiously as investors preferred to stay on the sidelines until the Fed decision provides a clearer policy outlook.

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