Will Nvidia’s Earnings Ignite the Next Stock Surge This Week?

Artificial intelligence leader Nvidia is set to release its quarterly earnings after markets close on Wednesday, with investors bracing for a significant stock reaction. Options pricing suggests the shares could swing about 6.4% in either direction by week’s end. From Monday’s closing price, that could push the stock to a record high of $191.25—boosting its market value to $4.67 trillion—or drop it to $168.41, the lowest level since mid-July.

Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 ignited the AI boom, making Nvidia the world’s most valuable company, it has delivered earnings reports 10 times. The stock saw double-digit jumps in the days following four of those announcements, with the latest in May 2024. However, recent quarters have been tougher, as results have often fallen short of sky-high expectations. Over the past four reports, the average weekly move post-earnings has been just 3.2%, and only once—in May—did the stock end the week higher than before the release.

This Wednesday’s report will be under intense scrutiny for signs that AI demand is holding strong. Major cloud providers have reaffirmed plans to pour hundreds of billions into data centers and infrastructure this year, driven by booming interest in AI and computing services. As the dominant player with an 80% to 90% share of the AI chip market, Nvidia stands to gain the most from this spending spree.
Attention will also turn to developments in sales to China. In May, warnings emerged about tightened export controls potentially slashing up to $8 billion in second-quarter revenue.

A recent agreement allows resumed sales there in return for a 15% revenue share, though it arrived too late to affect this quarter’s figures. It should, however, influence future guidance.
Overall sentiment remains strongly positive, with the vast majority viewing the stock as a buy. The consensus price target sits around $203.38, implying about 13% upside from Monday’s close. This update reflects the latest options data and share prices as of August 25, 2025.