Market Movers- US Session: NFP and Key Data to Steer Markets and Assets on July 3

On Thursday, July 3, 2025, investors and traders will zero in on a critical lineup of US economic releases, with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report headlining. Forecasted to show a modest 110,000 job gain for June, down from May’s 139,000, and an unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the NFP could significantly impact financial markets.

A weaker-than-expected report, following June’s ADP private payrolls drop of 33,000 against a projected 99,000 gain, may signal a cooling economy, boosting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This could weaken the US dollar, with the dollar index already volatile above 97.00, and lift safe-haven assets like gold, hovering near $3,350 per ounce.

The NFP’s influence extends to equities, with a soft report potentially pressuring the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which rose 0.7% on Wednesday amid trade optimism. Factory orders and the US trade balance, key for assessing manufacturing and trade tensions, will also move markets. With US-EU talks nearing a July 9 deadline and a US-Vietnam deal easing tariffs on electronics, a wider trade deficit could weigh on the dollar and bolster EUR/USD, now below 1.1800, or USD/JPY, near 144.00.

The S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Services PMI, reflecting the service sector’s health (over 70% of US GDP), are pivotal for equity valuations, particularly tech-heavy indices. Weekly initial jobless claims will signal labor market trends, impacting bond yields, with 10-year Treasuries at 4.292%. Higher yields could pressure gold and silver, the latter above $36.00 per ounce, while supporting the dollar.

WTI crude, past $66.00 per barrel despite rising US inventories, may face volatility if trade talks falter. President Donald Trump’s dismissal of a near-term Japan deal adds uncertainty, potentially strengthening the yen as a safe-haven. As markets brace for these releases, volatility in currencies, equities, and commodities is expected to spike.