WTI Crude Oil Edges Up as Markets Await API Inventory Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices climbed toward $65.00 on July 1, 2025, driven by shifting focus to the upcoming American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly inventory report. After a 12% price drop last week, WTI’s modest recovery reflects cautious optimism amid easing Middle East tensions and rising U.S. demand. However, OPEC+ supply increases and technical resistance cap gains. This article explores the factors influencing WTI’s movement, the significance of the API data, and the outlook for oil prices in the third quarter.

API Report Looms Large

The API’s Weekly Statistical Bulletin, due at 20:30 GMT on July 1, 2025, is expected to show a 2.26 million barrel drawdown in U.S. crude oil stockpiles, following a 4.277 million barrel decline the previous week. Five consecutive weeks of falling inventories signal robust domestic consumption, which could push WTI higher if the draw exceeds forecasts. However, OPEC+’s gradual supply increases, as agreed by members like Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, may temper upward momentum. The interplay of U.S. demand and global supply dynamics will likely dictate WTI’s next move.

Geopolitical Shifts Ease Pressure

Recent de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict has reduced fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint. Earlier concerns about potential blockades drove inventory drawdowns, but stabilizing sentiment has shifted focus to supply-demand fundamentals. Historical parallels, like the 2020 oil price crash, highlight how geopolitical calm can refocus markets on data like API reports. While reduced tensions support market stability, they also lessen the risk premium that previously buoyed prices, keeping WTI within a $64.00–$65.00 range.