Gold Climbs as Dollar Stumbles on Trade Fears

Gold’s Steady Rise

On June 30, 2025, gold futures for August delivery rose to $3,302 per ounce, up from $3,273, driven by a faltering U.S. dollar. The precious metal peaked at $3,309 and dipped to $3,246, reflecting its inverse tie to the dollar. The Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 96.87 from 97.40, ranging between 96.90 and 97.32. President Trump’s looming July 9 tariff deadline, threatening renewed trade tensions with major partners, fueled market unease, boosting gold’s safe-haven allure. Can this rally hold?

Dollar Under Pressure

The dollar weakened amid fears of a $3.3 trillion U.S. budget deficit over the next decade, driven by proposed tax cuts. June’s Chicago PMI, dropping to 40.4, marked a five-month low, signaling unexpected economic contraction. This grim data rattled markets, pushing investors toward gold. A Seattle-based jeweler, for instance, might stockpile gold to hedge against rising import costs.

Market Signals

Gold thrives in uncertainty, as seen in 2020 when trade disputes sparked a 5% surge in a month. Current trade jitters mirror that volatility, supporting gold’s upward momentum.

Looking Forward

If trade talks collapse, gold could push toward $3,350. A resolution might stabilize the dollar, limiting gains. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech and jobs data will steer gold’s next move.