Dollar Rides High on Trade Deal Optimism

Trade Talks Fuel Dollar’s Rise: In June 2025, the U.S. dollar got a shot in the arm from growing optimism over trade negotiations. Reports of nearing agreements between the United States and key trading partners pushed the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against major currencies, to 97.27 points on Friday, up from 97.15 at the previous close. The index fluctuated, dipping to a daily low of 97.00 before peaking at 97.42. This uptick signals markets betting on stronger U.S. economic prospects, but can the momentum hold?

U.S.-China Deal Nears Finish Line

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced Friday that the U.S. and China are finalizing trade terms hashed out in Geneva. China’s Commerce Ministry echoed Lutnick’s optimism, noting it’s reviewing export restriction laws and preparing approvals to ease trade barriers. For example, a tech firm in Texas might soon benefit from smoother supply chains if these restrictions loosen, boosting confidence in the dollar’s strength.

Broader Trade Agreements in Sight

Lutnick also revealed that the White House is close to sealing trade deals with ten major partners by July 9. These agreements could reshape global trade dynamics, potentially strengthening the dollar further. However, markets remain cautious, as past trade talks have faltered at the last hurdle.

The dollar’s recent gains hinge on these trade breakthroughs. If finalized, they could bolster U.S. exports and economic growth. Yet, any delays or breakdowns in negotiations might cool this optimism, leaving the dollar vulnerable. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this rally has legs.