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Oil prices saw a modest uptick in Asian trading on Friday, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions and tentative signs of progress in U.S.-China trade relations. However, both Brent and WTI benchmarks remain poised for weekly losses as concerns over rising OPEC+ supply and a fragile demand outlook continue to weigh on the market.
As of 21:28 ET (01:28 GMT):
- Brent crude futures (June delivery) rose 0.3% to $66.77 per barrel
- WTI crude futures gained 0.4% to $62.38 per barrel
Despite Friday’s gains, both contracts are on track for weekly losses of nearly 2%, extending their April declines to more than 10%.
OPEC+ Production Concerns Pressure Sentiment
Market pressure has largely stemmed from reports that several OPEC+ members are advocating for an accelerated output increase in June, mirroring May’s surprise hike of 411,000 barrels per day. This push is driven by internal disagreements over quota compliance, according to a Reuters report.
The prospect of further supply increases comes at a time of already tepid demand growth and concerns about oversupply, raising the risk of pushing oil prices lower in the near term.
U.S.-China Tariff Negotiation Hopes Offer Support
Providing some counterbalance was news that the Trump administration is mulling a partial rollback of tariffs on Chinese imports, according to the Wall Street Journal. President Trump recently indicated that a trade deal could lead to a “substantial” tariff reduction, although he emphasized that duties “won’t be zero.”
Should a de-escalation occur, it may boost economic activity in China, the world’s largest crude importer, supporting oil demand expectations over the medium term.
Ukraine Conflict Reignites Supply Risk Premium
Geopolitical risk also returned to the forefront after Russia launched its deadliest missile and drone barrage on Kyiv in nearly a year, escalating the war in Ukraine. The move prompted a sharp rebuke from U.S. President Donald Trump, who called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to “stop” the aggression, warning the assault jeopardized fragile ceasefire talks.
Given Russia’s status as a major oil exporter, any escalation in the Ukraine conflict tends to raise concerns about supply disruptions, offering short-term price support.
Outlook: While oil is recovering slightly heading into the weekend, the market remains under pressure from structural oversupply risks and lingering demand uncertainty. Upcoming decisions from OPEC+, as well as clarity on U.S.-China trade dynamics and the Ukraine conflict, will be key factors in determining price direction into May.
