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Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, April 15, 2025, driven by U.S. policy adjustments and a rebound in China’s crude oil imports. Brent crude futures increased by 27 cents, or 0.42%, to $65.15 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 26 cents, also up 0.42%, to $61.79. The price gains reflect market reactions to potential tariff exemptions from the U.S. and signs of strengthening demand from China, the world’s top oil importer. Despite lingering uncertainties in global trade, these factors have provided a cautious lift to oil markets.
A significant factor behind the price surge was the announcement of potential exemptions from the 25% tariffs on foreign auto and auto parts imports from countries like Mexico and Canada. Combined with earlier exemptions on electronics such as smartphones and computers, this move signals a partial easing of aggressive tariff policies. These exemptions are seen as a retreat from previously announced import levies, offering some support to risk assets like oil. However, the unpredictable nature of ongoing policy shifts continues to create uncertainty in market sentiment.
Further supporting the bullish trend, China reported a nearly 5% year-on-year increase in crude oil imports for March 2025, largely due to a surge in Iranian oil shipments. This rise reflects China’s anticipation of tighter U.S. sanctions on Iran, which could limit global oil supply. Recent indications from U.S. officials suggest plans to halt Iranian oil exports to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program, a development that could further bolster oil prices. Additionally, Kazakhstan’s 3% drop in oil output in early April, though still above its OPEC+ quota, contributed to supply-side dynamics.
Despite these positive drivers, concerns about global economic growth and oil demand remain. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently lowered its 2025 demand forecast, citing trade tensions as a major risk. The International Energy Agency (IEA) similarly projected that global oil demand growth in 2025 will slow to its weakest pace in five years, driven by trade disruptions and retaliatory measures from trading partners. These forecasts have prompted some banks to cut their crude price outlooks, warning that an escalated trade war could push Brent prices as low as $40-$60 per barrel.
The oil market is navigating a complex balance between short-term optimism and longer-term caution. While tariff exemptions and China’s import rebound provide some upward momentum, the broader impact of trade policies continues to weigh heavily. Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, including China’s 84% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, could weaken global economic activity and reduce oil demand. Traders are now closely watching U.S. inventory data and further policy developments for signals on the market’s next direction.
