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Oil Prices Decline Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Friday, extending their monthly losses as:

  • Concerns over U.S. trade tariffs weighed on global demand.
  • Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal raised the prospect of lifted sanctions and increased oil supply.

At 21:38 ET (02:38 GMT):

  • Brent crude futures dropped 0.4% to $73.30 per barrel.
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.4% to $69.70 per barrel.

Biggest Monthly Drop in Six Months

Both contracts, set to expire in April, are:

  • Down over 3% this month, marking their worst monthly decline since September.
  • On track for their first monthly loss in three months.

Trump’s Policies Add to Supply Disruptions

President Donald Trump’s recent actions have added further pressure to oil markets:

  1. Revoking Chevron’s Venezuela license on Wednesday, halting U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude (previously averaging 270,000 barrels per day this year).
  2. Reinstating the “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, aiming to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero by targeting:
    • Brokers
    • Tanker operators
    • Shipping companies

OPEC+ Divided Over April Output Plans

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are currently:

  • Debating whether to proceed with a planned output increase in April 2025.
  • Maintaining an existing output cut of 5.85 million barrels per day, with internal disagreements over supply adjustments.

Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Could Pressure Oil Prices

Hopes for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could:

  • Lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russia.
  • Boost global oil supply, potentially driving prices lower.

Despite supply risks from Venezuela and Iran, the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and geopolitical developments continues to weigh on oil markets, driving volatility into April.

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