What could key assets expect in the new year?

Financial markets are poised for a challenging 2025, navigating corporate transformations, geopolitical uncertainties, and economic resilience. Key factors like government policies, market dynamics, and global events will significantly impact major sectors including oil, gold, the US dollar, and cryptocurrencies.

The US election outcome could trigger a long-term economic upswing, driven by potential deregulation and tax cuts. A robust US economy is supported by low unemployment, resilient consumer spending, and high home equity values. However, challenges include heightened geopolitical risks, lingering trade war consequences, and inflationary pressures. The impact of potential policy shifts under a new administration remains uncertain.

The oil market outlook hinges on supply and demand dynamics. While the EIA predicts a slight global oil consumption surplus in 2025, OPEC+ production cuts and increased global demand are likely to tighten the market. China’s economic stimulus measures and increased non-OPEC+ supply are expected to contribute to a comfortably supplied market.

Gold remains a crucial safe-haven asset amidst economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Factors like inflation expectations, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations will drive gold’s performance in 2025. While analysts predict a strong rally, the strengthening dollar and potential policy shifts under a new US administration could impact investor sentiment.

The US dollar’s trajectory will be influenced by economic performance, monetary policy, and geopolitical developments. The Federal Reserve’s commitment to higher-for-longer interest rates is supporting the dollar’s strength. However, the dollar’s dominance may face challenges from other major currencies.

Cryptocurrencies are expected to experience significant growth in 2025, driven by technological advancements, regulatory changes, and increased adoption. Bitcoin, while volatile, remains resilient. Stablecoins have witnessed substantial growth, facilitating faster and cheaper international payments. The tokenization of real-world assets is also gaining traction, expanding beyond traditional assets like US Treasuries.