FOMC minutes cite “diminished” inflation risks, concern about “overly restrictive” policy

US Federal Reserve officials appeared increasingly convinced at their meeting last month that inflation was coming under control, with “upside risks” diminished and growing concern about the damage that “overly restrictive” monetary policy might do to the economy, according to minutes of the central bank’s Dec. 12-13 policy meeting.

As a result “almost all participants indicated that…a lower target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate by the end of 2024,” the minutes said, with “a number of participants” highlighting increased uncertainty about how long strict monetary policy would need to be maintained given the progress achieved on lowering inflation.

“A few” Fed officials said they felt the Fed was approaching a point where the central bank may face a “tradeoff” between its dual goals of controlling inflation and maintaining high rates of employment – the sort of sacrifice policymakers have hoped to avoid in their search for a “soft landing” from the worst breakout of inflation in 40 years.