TSX Climbs, U.S. Markets Hit Peaks on Trade Breakthrough

Canadian Market Gains

On June 30, 2025, Canada’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 164.79 points to 26,857.11, with all sectors advancing. The rally followed Canada’s repeal of a digital services tax, defusing tensions after U.S. President Trump paused trade talks. Prime Minister Mark Carney tied the decision to ongoing trade negotiations, sparking investor optimism. A Calgary-based exporter, for example, could benefit from lower U.S. tariffs, strengthening trade ties with Canada’s largest partner. Can the TSX sustain this upward push?

U.S. Stocks Break Records

U.S. markets extended their winning streak, with the S&P 500 up 31.88 points to 6,204.95, the Dow gaining 275.50 points to 44,094.77, and the Nasdaq rising 96.28 points to 20,369.73. Hopes for softer U.S. tariff policies, bolstered by Canada’s tax reversal, drove gains. The EUR/USD hit 1.1780, reflecting dollar weakness as markets eyed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra.

Commodities in Focus

Gold soared to $3,307.70 per ounce, fueled by a weaker dollar and inflation hedging, benefiting Canada’s mining sector. August crude oil, however, fell to $65.11 per barrel amid easing Middle East tensions.

Looking Ahead

Tuesday’s U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and central bank speeches could sway markets. A favorable U.S.-Canada trade deal might push the TSX higher, but renewed tariff threats could spark volatility.