{"id":128900,"date":"2026-06-25T16:57:01","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T12:57:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/?p=128900"},"modified":"2026-06-25T16:57:05","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T12:57:05","slug":"feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-matches-forecasts-in-may-core-pce-at-3-4-as-oil-price-slump-eases-future-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-matches-forecasts-in-may-core-pce-at-3-4-as-oil-price-slump-eases-future-pressure\/06\/25\/market-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed&#8217;s Preferred Inflation Gauge Matches Forecasts in May: Core PCE at 3.4% as Oil Price Slump Eases Future Pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Takeaways<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Core PCE in line:<\/strong> The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in May \u2014 matching economist estimates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Core ticks up slightly:<\/strong> Both the monthly and annual core readings edged above April&#8217;s figures, but without a negative surprise.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Headline PCE beats:<\/strong> The headline measure rose 0.4% month-on-month \u2014 below the 0.5% consensus \u2014 and 4.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>No hawkish shock:<\/strong> The in-line print avoids the scenario markets feared most \u2014 a hotter-than-expected reading that would have cemented aggressive Fed tightening bets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Oil slump a future tailwind:<\/strong> Rapidly declining oil prices since the U.S.-Iran peace deal should help ease future PCE readings, particularly on the headline measure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fed rate path:<\/strong> Markets will continue digesting the data alongside last week&#8217;s hawkish Fed signals, with September and December hike probabilities remaining elevated.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge ticked up in May but at a rate that matched expectations, at a time when concerns about price pressures have eased amid rapidly sliding oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in May \u2014 in line with estimates compiled by economists and analysts and ticking up slightly from April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, headline PCE increased 0.4% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year in May, compared to consensus estimates of 0.5% and 4.1%, respectively \u2014 with the monthly reading coming in slightly below forecast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Core PCE in line: The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in May \u2014 matching economist estimates. Core ticks up slightly: Both the monthly and annual core readings edged above April&#8217;s figures, but without a negative surprise. Headline PCE beats: The headline measure rose 0.4% month-on-month \u2014 &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":102812,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6827,49,37,36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-128900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-daily-economic-reports","category-economic-reports","category-forex-markets","category-market-updates"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=128900"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128900\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":128901,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128900\/revisions\/128901"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102812"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=128900"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=128900"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=128900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}