{"id":124920,"date":"2026-03-24T17:21:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T13:21:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/?p=124920"},"modified":"2026-03-24T18:40:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T14:40:09","slug":"u-s-business-activity-slows-to-11-month-low-as-iran-war-fuels-inflation-pressures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/u-s-business-activity-slows-to-11-month-low-as-iran-war-fuels-inflation-pressures\/03\/24\/market-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Business Activity Slows to 11-Month Low as Iran War Fuels Inflation Pressures"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. economic momentum weakened in March, with business activity growth slowing to its lowest level in nearly a year as companies grappled with rising costs and heightened uncertainty linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to S&amp;P Global, the <strong>flash U.S. Composite PMI<\/strong> slipped to <strong>51.4<\/strong> from <strong>51.9<\/strong> in February. While the reading remains above the 50 threshold that signals expansion, it points to a clear loss of momentum in the world\u2019s largest economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Services sector takes the biggest hit<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The slowdown was led by the services sector, which remains the backbone of U.S. economic activity:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Services PMI<\/strong> fell to <strong>51.1<\/strong> (11-month low)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Manufacturing PMI<\/strong> rose slightly to <strong>52.9<\/strong> (two-month high)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This divergence highlights how consumer-facing industries are more exposed to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Rising living costs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weakening demand<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Geopolitical uncertainty<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>S&amp;P Global noted that sectors such as travel, transport, and tourism are facing particular pressure due to a mix of affordability constraints and financial market volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inflation and uncertainty weigh on demand<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, described the current environment as an <strong>\u201cunwelcome combination\u201d of slower growth and rising inflation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Businesses reported:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Declining new orders<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increased caution from consumers<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Higher operational costs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The impact of the Iran conflict is being felt through multiple channels:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Surging energy prices<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Supply chain disruptions<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Elevated interest rate concerns<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Companies are responding defensively by:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Building precautionary inventories (\u201csafety stocks\u201d)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cutting hiring or reducing headcount<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tightening cost controls<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Growth outlook weakens<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest PMI data suggest that U.S. economic growth is cooling significantly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Estimated GDP growth: <strong>~1.0% annualized<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Q1 growth projection: <strong>~1.3%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This marks a notable slowdown compared to earlier expectations of stronger expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil shock driving inflation surge<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A key driver behind the slowdown is the sharp rise in oil prices since the conflict began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The effective disruption of shipping through the <strong>Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, which carries around <strong>20% of global oil supply<\/strong>, has:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pushed energy prices sharply higher<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increased input costs for businesses<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fed into broader inflation pressures<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Input costs<\/strong> rose at the fastest pace in <strong>10 months<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Selling prices<\/strong> saw their biggest increase since <strong>August 2022<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Supplier delivery times<\/strong> worsened to the highest level since <strong>October 2022<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed faces a difficult dilemma<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve recently held interest rates steady, citing uncertainty around the economic impact of the conflict. However, the latest data complicates the outlook:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Growth is slowing \u2192 argues for rate cuts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation is rising \u2192 argues for tighter policy<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets, which previously expected rate cuts in 2026, are now beginning to consider the possibility that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Fed may <strong>delay easing<\/strong>, or even<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Revisit rate hikes<\/strong> if inflation continues to accelerate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom line<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. economy is entering a more fragile phase characterized by:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Slowing growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Persistent inflation pressures<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Elevated geopolitical risk<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The combination raises the specter of <strong>stagflation-like conditions<\/strong>, where weak economic activity coincides with rising prices\u2014posing a significant challenge for policymakers and investors alike.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.S. economic momentum weakened in March, with business activity growth slowing to its lowest level in nearly a year as companies grappled with rising costs and heightened uncertainty linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran. According to S&amp;P Global, the flash U.S. Composite PMI slipped to 51.4 from 51.9 in February. While the reading remains &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":30981,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6827,49,37,36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-124920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-daily-economic-reports","category-economic-reports","category-forex-markets","category-market-updates"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=124920"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124920\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":124921,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124920\/revisions\/124921"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=124920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=124920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=124920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}