{"id":121024,"date":"2025-11-19T12:55:16","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T08:55:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/?p=121024"},"modified":"2025-11-19T12:37:36","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T08:37:36","slug":"u-k-inflation-cools-less-than-forecast-keeping-boe-december-cut-in-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/u-k-inflation-cools-less-than-forecast-keeping-boe-december-cut-in-play\/11\/19\/market-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"U.K. Inflation Cools Less Than Forecast, Keeping BoE December Cut in Play"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p> U.K. inflation eased in October but by slightly less than expected, leaving the Bank of England on a narrow path as markets weigh the chances of a rate cut at next month\u2019s final policy meeting of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>CPI:<\/strong> +3.6% y\/y (vs 3.8% in September; 3.5% expected) \u2014 lowest since May<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Monthly CPI:<\/strong> +0.4% m\/m (vs 0.0% prior)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Core CPI:<\/strong> +3.4% y\/y (vs 3.5% prior), +0.3% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>PPI Input:<\/strong> \u20130.3% m\/m; +0.5% y\/y<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Although inflation remains well above the BoE\u2019s <strong>2.0%<\/strong> target, the continued moderation\u2014especially in core\u2014adds to evidence that price pressures are stabilizing. Producer input prices fell on the month and are barely positive year-on-year, suggesting further pipeline disinflation ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Policy makers held Bank Rate in a <strong>5\u20134<\/strong> split earlier this month, with Governor <strong>Andrew Bailey<\/strong> casting the deciding vote to keep policy unchanged while seeking \u201cclearer evidence\u201d of disinflation. Today\u2019s release nudges the BoE closer to a cut in <strong>December<\/strong>, though the margin of downside surprise was small.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What could sway the BoE<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Fiscal backdrop:<\/strong> Chancellor <strong>Rachel Reeves\u2019<\/strong> <em>Autumn Budget<\/em> on <strong>Nov. 26<\/strong>\u2014expected to raise taxes (likely outside income tax) while offering targeted cost-of-living support (e.g., energy relief)\u2014could affect near-term inflation dynamics and the Bank\u2019s growth-inflation trade-off.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Growth pulse:<\/strong> Activity remains meager, increasing the allure of insurance easing if inflation\u2019s descent persists.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Services &amp; pay:<\/strong> The BoE will watch services inflation and wage trends for confirmation that underlying pressures are easing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market take<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists polled earlier this month largely expect a <strong>December cut<\/strong>, with another move possible early next year as inflation cools and growth stays soft. Given today\u2019s near-consensus print, odds still favor an initial, cautious reduction\u2014conditional on fiscal details and any late-arriving data before the decision window.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.K. inflation eased in October but by slightly less than expected, leaving the Bank of England on a narrow path as markets weigh the chances of a rate cut at next month\u2019s final policy meeting of 2025. CPI: +3.6% y\/y (vs 3.8% in September; 3.5% expected) \u2014 lowest since May Monthly CPI: +0.4% m\/m (vs &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":31846,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37,36],"tags":[7202,6978,6987,6835],"class_list":["post-121024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-forex-markets","category-market-updates","tag-bank-of-england","tag-cpi","tag-inflation","tag-uk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121024","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121024"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121024\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":121025,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121024\/revisions\/121025"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31846"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=121024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=121024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}