{"id":120943,"date":"2025-11-17T16:42:49","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T12:42:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/?p=120943"},"modified":"2025-11-17T16:42:52","modified_gmt":"2025-11-17T12:42:52","slug":"oil-slips-as-novorossiysk-resumes-loadings-supply-risk-premium-cools","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/oil-slips-as-novorossiysk-resumes-loadings-supply-risk-premium-cools\/11\/17\/market-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil slips as Novorossiysk resumes loadings; supply-risk premium cools"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude prices eased Monday, giving back part of Friday\u2019s surge after tanker-tracking data showed <strong>Russia\u2019s Novorossiysk<\/strong> port had <strong>resumed crude loadings<\/strong>, tempering immediate fears of a supply shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Brent (Jan)<\/strong> down <strong>0.7% to $63.97\/bbl<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>WTI<\/strong> down <strong>0.7% to $59.52\/bbl<\/strong> (04:35 ET)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supply scare fades\u2014but risk linger remains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Friday\u2019s 2%+ rally followed Ukrainian strikes on <strong>Novorossiysk<\/strong> and a nearby <strong>Caspian Pipeline Consortium<\/strong> terminal that temporarily halted exports worth roughly <strong>2% of global supply<\/strong>. With loadings back online by Sunday, the acute squeeze eased, trimming the risk premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, the <strong>attack cadence is rising<\/strong>: Ukraine said it struck Russia\u2019s <strong>Ryazan<\/strong> refinery on Saturday and <strong>Novokuibyshevsk<\/strong> in <strong>Samara<\/strong> on Sunday, keeping medium-term disruption risks in play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sanctions clock ticks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders are also tracking U.S. <strong>sanctions<\/strong> tightening after <strong>Nov. 21<\/strong>, which bar dealings with <strong>Lukoil<\/strong> and <strong>Rosneft<\/strong>. Buyers are unwinding contracts, injecting uncertainty over how much Russian crude could become effectively <strong>stranded<\/strong> or require longer, costlier routes to market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Macro balance: surplus vs. shocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While consensus still points to a <strong>large market surplus through 2026<\/strong>, the <strong>frequency and scope<\/strong> of drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure argue for a <strong>stickier risk premium<\/strong>, ING noted. The push-pull between structural surplus and episodic outages suggests <strong>range-bound<\/strong> price action near term, with <strong>headline sensitivity<\/strong> elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What to watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Sanctions enforcement<\/strong> details and any carve-outs affecting flows post-Nov. 21.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Further strikes<\/strong> on Russian export infrastructure or refineries.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>OPEC+ signals<\/strong> around managing perceived 2026 surplus against rising geopolitical risk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the market is <strong>fading last week\u2019s spike<\/strong> but staying alert to fresh supply headlines that could quickly <strong>reprice the risk premium<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude prices eased Monday, giving back part of Friday\u2019s surge after tanker-tracking data showed Russia\u2019s Novorossiysk port had resumed crude loadings, tempering immediate fears of a supply shock. Brent (Jan) down 0.7% to $63.97\/bbl WTI down 0.7% to $59.52\/bbl (04:35 ET) Supply scare fades\u2014but risk linger remains Friday\u2019s 2%+ rally followed Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":93837,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,6827,49,36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-120943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-commodities-news","category-daily-economic-reports","category-economic-reports","category-market-updates"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120943"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120943\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":120944,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120943\/revisions\/120944"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93837"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}