{"id":119922,"date":"2025-10-14T16:44:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T12:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/?p=119922"},"modified":"2025-10-14T17:26:53","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T13:26:53","slug":"imf-raises-2025-global-growth-outlook-warns-of-trade-war-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/imf-raises-2025-global-growth-outlook-warns-of-trade-war-risks\/10\/14\/market-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF Raises 2025 Global Growth Outlook, Warns of Trade War Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%<\/strong>, up from 3.0%<\/strong> in July, while keeping its 2026 projection steady at 3.1%<\/strong>, according to its World Economic Outlook<\/em> report released Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moderate Optimism Despite Trade Risks<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The IMF\u2019s upward revision reflects more resilient financial conditions and less severe tariff impacts than initially feared. Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas<\/strong> said that recent U.S. trade deals have avoided the worst outcomes of President Donald Trump\u2019s<\/strong> threatened tariff hikes, with minimal global retaliation so far. This marks the Fund\u2019s second growth upgrade since April, when it projected only 2.8% growth amid escalating tariff tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the IMF warned that Trump\u2019s latest proposal to impose 100% duties on Chinese goods<\/strong> could sharply reverse progress. The Fund labeled such a move a \u201csignificant downside risk,\u201d noting that if tariffs were to rise by 30 percentage points on Chinese exports<\/strong> and 10 percentage points on other major trading partners<\/strong>, global growth could drop by 0.3 percentage points in 2026<\/strong> and more than 0.6 points by 2028<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Country-Level Forecasts: U.S. and Japan Lead Upgrades<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The IMF\u2019s baseline forecast assumes U.S.-China negotiations prevent a full-blown trade war. Under this scenario:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • U.S. growth<\/strong> is expected to reach 2.0% in 2025<\/strong> (up from 1.9%) and 2.1% in 2026<\/strong>, though still below 2024\u2019s 2.8%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The eurozone<\/strong> outlook improved to 1.2%<\/strong>, supported by fiscal expansion in Germany and robust momentum in Spain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Japan<\/strong> saw a notable upward revision to 1.1%<\/strong> from 0.7%, boosted by front-loaded exports and stronger wage growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • China\u2019s economy<\/strong> is expected to expand 4.8% in 2025<\/strong> and 4.2% in 2026<\/strong>, unchanged from prior estimates, though the IMF warned that the country\u2019s property sector remains a \u201cmajor financial stability risk.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Inflation and Policy Implications<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Global inflation projections were largely unchanged at 4.2% for 2025<\/strong> and 3.7% for 2026<\/strong>, but the IMF highlighted widening divergences among major economies. Inflation forecasts for the U.S.<\/strong> were revised higher as companies begin passing tariff-related costs<\/strong> onto consumers, while price pressures in Europe<\/strong> and Japan<\/strong> continue to moderate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The IMF emphasized that while growth remains solid, policymakers must stay alert to risks of a renewed trade war<\/strong>, tightening financial conditions<\/strong>, and lingering debt vulnerabilities<\/strong> in emerging markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in July, while keeping its 2026 projection steady at 3.1%, according to its World Economic Outlook report released Tuesday. Moderate Optimism Despite Trade Risks The IMF\u2019s upward revision reflects more resilient financial conditions and less severe tariff impacts …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":88945,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,6827,49,37,36],"tags":[6832,6946,10372],"class_list":["post-119922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-commodities-news","category-daily-economic-reports","category-economic-reports","category-forex-markets","category-market-updates","tag-china","tag-imf","tag-monetary-policies"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119922"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119922\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":119923,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119922\/revisions\/119923"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88945"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}