{"id":113578,"date":"2025-04-14T13:10:10","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T09:10:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/?p=113578"},"modified":"2025-04-14T13:10:14","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T09:10:14","slug":"oil-prices-edge-higher-on-u-s-tariff-exemptions-strong-china-imports-but-trade-war-caps-gains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/oil-prices-edge-higher-on-u-s-tariff-exemptions-strong-china-imports-but-trade-war-caps-gains\/04\/14\/market-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Prices Edge Higher on U.S. Tariff Exemptions, Strong China Imports \u2014 But Trade War Caps Gains"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil prices ticked up slightly on Monday<\/strong>, lifted by a combination of <strong>U.S. tariff exemptions on electronic goods<\/strong> and a <strong>sharp rebound in China\u2019s crude imports for March<\/strong>. However, concerns over an <strong>escalating U.S.-China trade war<\/strong> and its impact on <strong>global economic growth<\/strong> continued to limit gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As of <strong>08:22 GMT<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Brent crude futures<\/strong> rose <strong>$0.08<\/strong>, or <strong>0.12%<\/strong>, to <strong>$64.84<\/strong> per barrel<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude<\/strong> climbed <strong>$0.10<\/strong>, or <strong>0.16%<\/strong>, to <strong>$61.60<\/strong> per barrel<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade Policy Whiplash Keeps Markets Cautious<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The modest rebound in prices followed news late Friday that the <strong>Trump administration would exclude smartphones, computers, and certain electronics<\/strong> from its latest <strong>145% tariff list on Chinese goods<\/strong>. The exemption helped ease fears of supply chain disruptions for major U.S. importers and manufacturers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, <strong>uncertainty remains high<\/strong> after a string of tariff announcements followed by policy reversals. President Trump said on Sunday he would <strong>reveal a separate tariff rate on semiconductors<\/strong> later this week, keeping investors on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China\u2019s March Crude Imports Jump Nearly 5% YoY<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Providing additional support, <strong>China\u2019s crude oil imports rose sharply in March<\/strong>, up nearly <strong>5% year-over-year<\/strong>, according to customs data released Monday. The increase was driven by:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Resumed Iranian shipments<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A <strong>rebound in Russian crude deliveries<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s import strength contrasts with broader concerns about <strong>slowing global demand<\/strong>, suggesting <strong>short-term resilience<\/strong> in the world\u2019s largest oil importer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil Prices Still Down Sharply in April<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite today\u2019s gains, <strong>Brent and WTI are both down about $10 per barrel<\/strong> since the start of the month, as the <strong>U.S.-China trade conflict intensified<\/strong>. The market has responded with <strong>lowered price forecasts<\/strong> and increased concerns about a prolonged demand slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Goldman Sachs Slashes Forecasts, Warns of Sluggish Demand<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong> now forecasts:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Brent to average $63<\/strong> and <strong>WTI $59<\/strong> for the remainder of <strong>2025<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Brent to average $58<\/strong> and <strong>WTI $55<\/strong> in <strong>2026<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts see <strong>global oil demand in Q4 2025<\/strong> rising by just <strong>300,000 barrels per day<\/strong>, a steep drop from previous years. The sharpest slowdown is expected in demand for <strong>petrochemical feedstocks<\/strong>, typically used in manufacturing plastics and fertilizers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Structure Shifts: Brent Moves into Contango<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>According to <strong>BMI (a unit of Fitch Solutions)<\/strong>, the <strong>Brent futures curve has flipped into contango<\/strong>, where <strong>front-month prices are lower than longer-dated contracts<\/strong>. This signals that investors are <strong>anticipating oversupply and weak demand<\/strong>, rather than any near-term shortage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Drilling Activity Slows as Demand Outlook Worsens<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Reflecting a cautious production outlook, the <strong>U.S. oil and gas rig count<\/strong> fell for the <strong>third consecutive week<\/strong>, according to <strong>Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:BKR)<\/strong>. Producers appear reluctant to expand operations in the face of falling prices and uncertain global demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Geopolitical Developments: Iran Oil Exports Under Pressure<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. Energy Secretary <strong>Chris Wright<\/strong> hinted that <strong>Washington may halt Iranian oil exports<\/strong> as part of renewed pressure on Tehran. This could <strong>tighten supply<\/strong>, particularly in Asia, but markets have so far shrugged off the headline amid broader concerns over demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, <strong>U.S. and Iranian officials held &#8220;positive&#8221; talks in Oman<\/strong> over the weekend, agreeing to <strong>reconvene next week<\/strong>, potentially hinting at diplomatic de-escalation in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook: Cautious Optimism, But Risks Linger<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>While Monday\u2019s price gains reflect <strong>improved sentiment on China and selective tariff relief<\/strong>, the broader oil market remains weighed down by:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Worsening demand forecasts<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ongoing trade war tensions<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Rising supply concerns<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders will be watching closely for:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Trump\u2019s <strong>next tariff announcement on semiconductors<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The <strong>U.S.-Iran negotiations<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This week\u2019s <strong>U.S. inventory and rig data<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Any signals from <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> on potential output adjustments<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, oil prices appear to be in <strong>stabilization mode<\/strong>, but any surprise from the geopolitical or macro front could quickly shift the balance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices ticked up slightly on Monday, lifted by a combination of U.S. tariff exemptions on electronic goods and a sharp rebound in China\u2019s crude imports for March. However, concerns over an escalating U.S.-China trade war and its impact on global economic growth continued to limit gains. As of 08:22 GMT: Brent crude futures rose &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":108378,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,6827,49,36],"tags":[7524,6936,6858],"class_list":["post-113578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-commodities-news","category-daily-economic-reports","category-economic-reports","category-market-updates","tag-energy","tag-oil-prices","tag-us-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113578"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113578\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":113579,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113578\/revisions\/113579"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}