{"id":113467,"date":"2025-04-09T11:48:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T07:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/?p=113467"},"modified":"2025-04-09T11:48:02","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T07:48:02","slug":"oil-prices-slide-to-lowest-since-february-2021-amid-trade-war-and-supply-concerns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/oil-prices-slide-to-lowest-since-february-2021-amid-trade-war-and-supply-concerns\/04\/09\/market-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Prices Slide to Lowest Since February 2021 Amid Trade War and Supply Concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil prices extended their losing streak to a fifth straight session on Wednesday<\/strong>, dropping to levels not seen since February 2021, as an escalating tariff war between the <strong>United States and China<\/strong> stoked fears of weakening global demand. At the same time, expectations of rising supply added further pressure to crude markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As of <strong>06:55 GMT<\/strong>,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Brent crude futures<\/strong> fell <strong>$1.39<\/strong>, or <strong>2.21%<\/strong>, to <strong>$61.43<\/strong> per barrel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude<\/strong> dropped <strong>$1.50<\/strong>, or <strong>2.52%<\/strong>, to <strong>$58.08<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Both benchmarks had earlier plunged as much as 4% before trimming some losses. Over the past five sessions, <strong>Brent and WTI have fallen sharply<\/strong> following U.S. President <strong>Donald Trump\u2019s announcement of sweeping tariffs<\/strong>, which sparked fears of a global recession and a slump in fuel consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Structure Signals Demand Worries<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Brent futures premium<\/strong> over its six-month forward contract shrank to <strong>98 cents per barrel<\/strong>, its narrowest since <strong>mid-November<\/strong>. This backwardation spread\u2014once as high as $3.53 on April 2\u2014has collapsed as investors grow increasingly wary of <strong>softening near-term demand<\/strong> and the risk of <strong>excess supply<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cChina\u2019s aggressive retaliation diminishes the chances of a quick deal between the world\u2019s two biggest economies, triggering mounting fears of economic recession across the globe,\u201d said <strong>Ye Lin<\/strong>, VP of oil markets at <strong>Rystad Energy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s <strong>104% tariffs<\/strong> on Chinese imports took effect <strong>at 12:01 a.m. EDT on Wednesday<\/strong>, following through on threats made after China declined to remove its <strong>34% retaliatory tariffs<\/strong> by the President\u2019s imposed deadline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beijing hit back with strong rhetoric, accusing the U.S. of <strong>&#8220;blackmail&#8221;<\/strong> and refusing to bow to pressure, further dampening prospects of a near-term resolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demand Outlook Weakens, Supply Set to Rise<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>China, the world\u2019s <strong>second-largest oil consumer<\/strong>, faces risks to as much as <strong>100,000 barrels per day (bpd)<\/strong> of oil demand growth if the trade conflict drags on, Ye Lin warned. While government stimulus could mitigate some of the losses, analysts remain cautious about the demand outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Worsening the supply-demand balance, <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> recently confirmed plans to <strong>increase output by 411,000 bpd starting in May<\/strong>. Analysts say the move could <strong>tip the market into surplus<\/strong>, especially if demand continues to weaken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In response to these headwinds, <strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong> revised its forecast:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Brent<\/strong> could drop to <strong>$62<\/strong> per barrel by <strong>December 2025<\/strong>, and to <strong>$55<\/strong> by <strong>December 2026<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>WTI<\/strong> is seen falling to <strong>$58<\/strong> and <strong>$51<\/strong> in the same periods, respectively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Russia\u2019s <strong>ESPO Blend crude<\/strong> slipped below the <strong>$60 per barrel Western price cap<\/strong> for the first time on Monday, highlighting further pricing pressure in physical markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">U.S. Inventory Data Provides a Glimmer of Support<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In a rare bullish signal, the <strong>American Petroleum Institute (API)<\/strong> reported a <strong>1.1 million-barrel drop<\/strong> in U.S. crude inventories for the week ended April 4. That compares to analyst expectations for a <strong>1.4 million-barrel build<\/strong>, suggesting demand may not be as weak as feared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets now await official data from the <strong>U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)<\/strong>, due Wednesday at <strong>10:30 a.m. EDT (14:30 GMT)<\/strong>, for confirmation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>As oil prices sink under the weight of trade uncertainty and rising supply, traders remain cautious. Unless global demand indicators show improvement or geopolitical tensions ease, crude markets may remain under pressure in the near term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices extended their losing streak to a fifth straight session on Wednesday, dropping to levels not seen since February 2021, as an escalating tariff war between the United States and China stoked fears of weakening global demand. At the same time, expectations of rising supply added further pressure to crude markets. As of 06:55 &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":108378,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,6827,49,36],"tags":[7524,6936,6858],"class_list":["post-113467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-commodities-news","category-daily-economic-reports","category-economic-reports","category-market-updates","tag-energy","tag-oil-prices","tag-us-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113467"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":113468,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113467\/revisions\/113468"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/noortrends.ae\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}